085 
 WTNT41 KNHC 092045
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
 FLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE
 IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME
 IN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC
 MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS
 FOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.
  
 AFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
 PHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER
 THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY
 AND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME
 MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE
 OUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
 ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING
 NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN
 TO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 25.6N  64.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 26.8N  65.2W    65 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.7N  65.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 30.8N  65.5W    85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.3N  64.6W    90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     14/1800Z 49.0N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART