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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 25(43) 11(54)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 7(26)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 215N 566W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 215N 566W 50 29 14(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
12 215N 566W 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 228N 590W 34 47 40(87) 5(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94)
24 228N 590W 50 X 35(35) 13(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
24 228N 590W 64 X 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
36 240N 613W 34 1 36(37) 40(77) 9(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89)
36 240N 613W 50 X 4( 4) 36(40) 10(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53)
36 240N 613W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
48 252N 633W 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 26(69) 12(81) 1(82) X(82)
48 252N 633W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 11(45) 2(47) X(47)
48 252N 633W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24)
72 281N 657W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 38(60) 10(70) 3(73)
72 281N 657W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 8(38) 2(40)
72 281N 657W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) 1(22)
96 320N 660W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 26(48) 10(58)
96 320N 660W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 6(29)
96 320N 660W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16)
120 380N 635W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33)
120 380N 635W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
120 380N 635W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 75 90 95 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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