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 249 
 WTNT41 KNHC 072031
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 500 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
  
 FLORENCE REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE...NOW MORE THAN 900 NMI
 DIAMETER... NON-CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD WAS
 EXPANDED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...BASED ON
 SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
 HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WHEREAS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
 TO DEVELOP OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME.
 SINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN
 THE OUTER REGIONS LIKELY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEEDS
 SINCE THE LATTER ARE DRIVEN MORE BY THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
 BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE LARGE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH. NOW
 THAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
 FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER
 THAT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK SO
 THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR
 REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TAKING
 FLORENCE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE
 NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
 BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
 AND BRINGS FLORENCE VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 20.6N  54.9W    45 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  56.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.8N  59.0W    55 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  61.3W    65 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 25.2N  63.3W    75 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.1N  65.7W    90 KT
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  66.0W    95 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  63.5W    90 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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