322 
 WTNT41 KNHC 070238
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
  
 AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE CENTER OF
 FLORENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE
 POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE OVER 90 NM
 APART...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM A
 COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OR SHIP REPORTS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
 A WELL DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
 300/9.  NOTWITHSTANDING OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
 LOCATION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY A
 TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
 INSIST ON AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH
 ACCELERATION AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL
 MODEL RUN.  OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN EXCELLENT
 AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
 FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE
 AMBIGUITY OF THE CENTER POSITION.  HOWEVER OUR BEST ESTIMATE...
 USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT WIND
 SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KT.  FLORENCE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
 AMORPHOUS AND CONTINUES TO LACK DEFINITE BANDING FEATURES...AS
 APPARENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. 
 WATER VAPOR ANIMATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY
 RETREATING WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX AND
 PERMIT FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD.  WE
 SHOULD NOTE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
 INTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 19.6N  52.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  54.0W    50 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 21.9N  56.7W    55 KT
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.1N  59.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.3N  62.1W    75 KT
  72HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W    90 KT
  96HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  67.0W   100 KT
 120HR VT     12/0000Z 33.5N  66.5W    95 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH