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 721 
 WTNT41 KNHC 060238
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
  
 WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING
 THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM
 THE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS
 BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER THAT WE
 HAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN 
 AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY
 STRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES.  DUE TO THE
 CENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 RANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. 
 THEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE 
 TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
 RIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE
 APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN
 TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
 EASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
 
 FLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO 
 CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION
 PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
 INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING 
 AND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2
 DAYS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE
 NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
 
 THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
 USING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A
 RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION.  THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
 FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0300Z 17.7N  49.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N  51.0W    45 KT
  24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  53.0W    55 KT
  36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.3N  55.2W    60 KT
  48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N  57.6W    65 KT
  72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  62.5W    75 KT
  96HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  66.5W    85 KT
 120HR VT     11/0000Z 28.5N  69.0W    95 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
  
 
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