534 
 WTNT41 KNHC 042045
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006
  
 SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
 IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A
 SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE.  THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN
 TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING
 INCREASINGLY LINEAR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
 EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON
 TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT
 THIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
 DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS... AFTER WHICH MORE
 SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 LOWERED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO REFLECT THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL
 STATE... BUT IS KEPT ALMOST THE SAME IN THE LATER TERM OUT OF
 RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY HAVE THE
 SYSTEM IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM DAYS 3-5.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/10.
 COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
 DEPRESSION WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN A COUPLE
 DAYS...AFTER A LARGE TROUGH DEPARTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 HOWEVER...THE BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE SYSTEM'S
 SPEED. NOGAPS SHOOTS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN
 UNBELIEVABLY FAST RATE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET... AFTER BEING ONE OF THE
 SLOWEST MODELS... HAS MADE A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND IS NOW
 SIMILAR TO THE GFS POSITION. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST...
 WE'VE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN A MODEL
 CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE NOGAPS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.9N  43.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.6N  45.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.3N  46.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  48.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  50.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  62.0W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN