861 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 070236
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
 DATA SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE
 FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A
 TRACK JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE COAST AND
 CONTINUING NORTHWARD FARTHER INLAND...SUCH A TRACK APPEARS
 UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL TURN
 NORTHWESTWARD TAKING THE DEPRESSION INLAND WHERE RAPID DEGENERATION
 INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
 LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY. 
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
 REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
 FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
 MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 18.1N 102.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.6N 102.9W    25 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N 103.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N 104.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     09/0000Z...REMNANT LOW
  
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