114 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 062035
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008
 
 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED-
 LOOKING AND LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  STRONG
 EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND I HAVE BACKED OFF
 FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
 DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
 LATEST GFDL/HWRF FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR NO SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING.
 
 IT HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE CENTER EVEN WITH VISIBLE
 IMAGERY.  MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP EITHER.  RECENT
 VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT TO THE
 EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BUT THIS IS NOT YET CERTAIN.  HOWEVER
 THE CENTER POSITION WAS PULLED BACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS
 ADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 315/7.  THE MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS
 TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A
 LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE'S TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME OVER THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE
 MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
 MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
 
 AS NOTED EARLIER...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY
 PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
 MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.0N 102.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 103.9W    30 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N 104.8W    30 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 105.7W    30 KT
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 109.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH