322 
 WTNT41 KNHC 230849
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016
 
 Fiona is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone with a small burst
 of deep convection confined mainly to the southeastern quadrant due
 to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. The
 initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on a Dvorak
 intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB, and an ADT estimate of
 T2.2/32 kt from UW-CIMSS.
 
 The initial motion is a little slower at 290/11 kt. Fiona is
 forecast to gradually turn northwestward and decelerate as the
 small cyclone moves toward and into a break in the Bermuda-Azores
 ridge. The NHC forecast track is down the middle of the tightly
 packed model guidance, and lies close to consensus track model TVCN.
 
 Strong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been
 plaguing Fiona for the past several days is forecast to weaken
 considerably during the next 36 hours, which would normally support
 some strengthening. However, the small cyclone is expected to remain
 embedded in a region of dry mid-level air with humidity values
 less than 60 percent during that time, decreasing to less than 50
 percent by 72 hours, which should inhibit the development of
 persistent deep convection near the center. The result is that Fiona
 is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, if not
 sooner.  The official intensity forecast remains below the consensus
 model IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models, and instead follows the
 weakening trend depicted in the global models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 25.8N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 26.2N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 27.1N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 28.1N  68.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 28.9N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0600Z 30.0N  70.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0600Z 30.6N  71.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart