645 
 WTNT41 KNHC 221434
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016
 
 The satellite depiction of Fiona currently features an exposed
 low-level circulation with a few small areas of convection
 southeast of the center.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates
 from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, while the various objective estimates
 range from 25-45 kt.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt based
 mainly on the subjective estimates.
 
 The dynamical models forecast that the current westerly vertical
 shear will subside somewhat by 48 hours as Fiona moves under an
 upper-level trough into an area of easterly upper-level winds to
 the north of the trough.  By 72 hours, the models forecast the
 cyclone or its remnants to encounter a second trough, which should
 produce another round of strong southwesterly shear. Based on the
 premise that the cyclone will not be able to respond to the brief
 period of more favorable conditions, the new intensity forecast
 calls for Fiona to gradually decay and become a remnant low in about
 36 hours. This would be followed by the system weakening to a trough
 after 96 hours.
 
 The initial motion is 285/16.  The guidance remains in good
 agreement on the forecast track through 72 hours, with Fiona moving
 west-northwestward to northwestward toward a developing break in
 the subtropical ridge.  Beyond that time, the guidance diverges,
 with the ECMWF turning the remnants of the system northeastward
 while the GFS and UKMET show a westward turn.  The new forecast
 track will compromise between these extremes in showing a slow
 north-northwestward motion.  The new forecast track is shifted a
 little to the west of the previous track and lies near the various
 consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 24.6N  59.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 25.3N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 26.1N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 27.0N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  24/1200Z 28.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/1200Z 30.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/1200Z 31.5N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven