819 
 WTNT41 KNHC 192035
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
 500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016
 
 Fiona continues to produce bursts of convection north of the
 center, although the center is now mostly exposed to the south of
 the latest burst.  An earlier RapidScat overpass suggested that
 tropical-storm-force winds were at best only occurring in the
 northwest quadrant, and based on these data and the loss of
 organization since this morning the initial intensity is decreased
 to 35 kt.
 
 The initial motion is 295/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge north of the
 cyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion
 should continue with some increase in forward speed during the next
 48-72 hours.  After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge
 caused by a frontal system moving eastward from the United States
 should cause Fiona to turn northwestward and north-northwestward.
 The guidance has again shifted westward between 72-120 hours.  Thus,
 as in the previous advisory that portion of the track is also nudged
 westward, but it remains to the east of the various consensus
 models.
 
 A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and
 convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to continue to
 weaken. The intensity guidance has mostly trended toward lower
 intensities since the last advisory, with the ECMWF model now
 forecasting Fiona to weaken to a trough before 120 hours.  Based on
 this, the intensity forecast now calls for Fiona to become a
 remnant low after 72 hours.  That being said, the environmental
 conditions might get less hostile by 120 hours, and the UKMET/
 Canadian models suggest the possibility of re-intensification at
 that time.  In deference to those models, the official forecast does
 not call for dissipation during this forecast period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 18.1N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 18.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 19.9N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 21.1N  50.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 22.1N  53.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 24.5N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 26.5N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  24/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven