185 
 WTNT41 KNHC 191435
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016
 
 Fiona continues to produce bursts of convection, mainly near and
 north of the center.  The current burst has weakened during the
 past few hours, leaving the low-level center partly exposed south
 of the convective area.  Various objective and subjective satellite
 intensity estimates range from 35-50 kt, and based on these, the
 initial intensity remains 40 kt.
 
 The initial motion is 295/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge north of the
 cyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion
 should continue with some increase in forward speed during the next
 48-72 hours.  After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge
 is expected to cause Fiona to turn northwestward.  The guidance has
 shifted a little westward between 72-120 hours.  Thus, that portion
 of the track is also nudged westward, but it lies to the east of
 the various consensus models.
 
 A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and
 convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the
 next 3-4 days.  The intensity forecast follows the guidance
 consensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48
 hours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest
 of the forecast period.  An alternative scenario is that the system
 weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low
 sometime before day 4.  As noted in the previous discussion, the
 environmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5.  However,
 it is uncertain how much of the cyclone might be left to take
 advantage of these more favorable conditions.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/1500Z 17.8N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 18.4N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 19.3N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 20.4N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 21.6N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  22/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  23/1200Z 26.0N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  24/1200Z 28.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven