196 
 WTNT43 KNHC 032035
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING.  THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A
 MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
 DROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  FURTHER
 WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DISSIPATION IS
 PROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE
 INTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
 REDEVELOP SOON.  THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
 OCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING.
  
 FIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING
 030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE
 MODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. 
 THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM
 THAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
 IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 30.0N  65.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 31.6N  64.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 33.6N  63.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 36.4N  61.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 39.6N  59.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE