336 
 WTNT43 KNHC 030236
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010
  
 FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM
 TAFB AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY.  THE NORTH-
 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT
 24-36 HOURS.  TYPICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE
 TO THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR. HOWEVER...FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE
 SHEAR DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
 FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
  
 FIONA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
 TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
 HURRICANE EARL TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
 MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
 IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN AROUND 36 HOURS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 26.9N  66.8W    45 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 28.7N  66.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 30.8N  65.9W    40 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.7N  64.8W    35 KT
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 34.8N  63.6W    35 KT
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 39.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN