510 
 WTNT43 KNHC 020245
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
  
 DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE
 THE LAST ADVISORY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 INTENSITY OF FIONA.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS OF 58 KT AND SFMR WINDS TO 53 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043
 THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
 QUADRANT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE
 DEPICTED A CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO
 NORTHWEST.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FIONA APPEARS QUITE
 HOSTILE...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS AT THE LOWER
 END OF THE GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
 DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE EARL. THIS SOLUTION IS
 SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DISSIPATION OF FIONA
 COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
  
 FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT FIONA ACCELERATED THIS
 AFTERNOON...WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 320/20 KT.  THE CYCLONE
 IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...FIONA IS FORECAST
 TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
 FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EARL TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE NEW TRACK
 FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF
 THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 21.8N  64.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.8N  65.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.2N  67.1W    45 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.8N  67.4W    40 KT
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  66.3W    40 KT
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 35.5N  63.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN