749 
 WTNT43 KNHC 312049
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
  
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
 FIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING.  THE AIRCRAFT
 FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGED
 SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON
 THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL
 ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
 INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
 ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT.  FIONA IS FORECAST
 TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHES
 THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL
 TO THE NORTHWEST.  ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3
 DAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH IN
 THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULD
 OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/2100Z 16.7N  57.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.9N  60.8W    40 KT
  24HR VT     01/1800Z 20.2N  63.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N  67.7W    35 KT
  72HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  67.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN