777 
 WTNT43 KNHC 310252
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010
 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
  
 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FIONA THIS
 EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
 WITH JUST A FEW WEAK BANDING FEATURES. A NOAA/NTAS BUOY LOCATED
 NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB A FEW HOURS
 AGO...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME PRESSURE AS BUOY 41041 MEASURED
 EARLIER TODAY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF FIONA...
 ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
 WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
 SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND
 MAY HALT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...PLUS THE CYCLONE COULD BE MOVING
 OVER COOLER WATERS THAT WERE UPWELLED BY EARL. MOST OF THE
 MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL/GFDN...ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
 SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
 PREVIOUS ONE BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
 HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
  
 MICROWAVE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING 280/21.
 FIONA SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER
 THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
 NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY
 WELL CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF.  THAT MODEL IS ON THE LEFT
 SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A DEEPER
 FIONA RESPONDING TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. 
 SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT SCENARIO...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/0300Z 15.1N  50.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.7N  54.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N  57.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  60.6W    45 KT
  48HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N  63.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N  69.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  69.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE