682 
 WTPA41 PHFO 192040
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062011
 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
 
 INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY CLEARLY SHOWED THE EXPOSED LOW
 LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF FERNANDA AND VERY LIMITED DEEP
 CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE
 CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 155W CONTINUES TO APPLY
 SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS
 INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF 16 KTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
 CPHC AND SAB WERE 35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DETERIORATION
 OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT THUS
 MAKING FERNANDA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
 FERNANDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
 SINCE AROUND 0800 UTC.  FURTHERMORE...THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION
 OF FERNANDA IS AND WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
 25C TO 26C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY
 SATURDAY.
 
 WITH FERNANDA NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION HAS BECOME MORE
 INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270
 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
 REMAINING LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
 AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS
 TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/2100Z 15.4N 145.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA