482 
 WTPA41 PHFO 191455
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062011
 500 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
 
 THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC...OF
 MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. PRIOR TO THE GOES11 ECLIPSE...THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
 SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AROUND 1100 UTC...A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM
 DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT LLCC. SINCE THAT TIME...THIS
 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
 WITH HIGHEST TOPS OF THE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT
 48 THOUSAND FEET. DESPITE THIS SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...
 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 14 KT FROM 170 DEGREES BASED ON THE
 LATEST AVAILABLE UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE TROPICAL STORM ALSO IS IN A
 REGION OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE SSTS OF ABOUT 26 DEGREES C...AND VERY
 LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT CIRA
 ANALYSIS.
 
 THE LLCC OF FERNANDA IS MOVING 280/10. THE LATEST SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB WERE ALL 3.0. DUE TO
 THE PROLONGED LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POOR APPEARANCE OF
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY....HAVE ASSIGNED A
 CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FERNANDA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
 UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
 EAST. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE UPPER LOW
 AND RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING
 SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
 THIS WEEKEND. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE SHEAR
 PERSIST...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME. 
  
 FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
 LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TURN THE MUCH WEAKENED AND
 SHALLOWER SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. WITH TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION
 WILL LIKELY BE SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC...AND THE LLCC WILL BE
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...AND
 LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/1500Z 15.1N 144.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 15.5N 146.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  20/1200Z 15.9N 148.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  21/0000Z 16.2N 150.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  21/1200Z 16.3N 152.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  22/1200Z 16.5N 156.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON