021 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 141432
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE COULD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
 BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...FERNANDA
 APPEARS TO HAVE HAD RE-DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY
 MODERATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 THAT FERNANDA SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECT OF COOL WATERS IN THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES AGAIN
 WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING
 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN KEEPS THE INTENSITY STEADY.
 
 FERNANDA HAS BEEN FORCED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
 8 KNOTS BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
 THE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS SO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS.
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 18.5N 130.0W    60 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W    40 KT
  
  
 $$