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 446 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 140853
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE
 COOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY
 TAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55
 KT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
 FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY
 FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF
 THE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL
 WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
 OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W    50 KT
  24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W    45 KT
  36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W    30 KT
  96HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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