317
WTPZ41 KNHC 140301
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER
THAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING
EYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. AMSU TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
TO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST.
FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU
CONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.
NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID
STEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT
$$
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