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 317 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 140301
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
  
 LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER
 THAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE.  DVORAK
 ESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING
 EYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
 HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT
 MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AMSU TROPICAL
 CYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD
 HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
 TO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
 THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST.
 FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
 THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
 SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU
 CONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.  
 NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID
 STEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W    65 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W    55 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W    50 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W    40 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
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