Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 215 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 131455
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005
 
 FERNANDA HAS STEADILY MAINTAINED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSTRAINED
 TO 4.5 OR 77 KT. AFWA DATA T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE OTHER
 CENTERS...BUT ALL AGREE THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD TO 70 KT UNTIL DAYLIGHT SATELLITE IMAGES
 GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
 
 THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU
 SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS...
 FERNANDA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND DURING THE EXTENDED
 FORECAST PERIOD IT BECOMES A DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY OUTLIER IS
 THE GFDL MODEL WHICH WEAKENS FERNANDA TO 45 KT... BUT IN THE
 EXTENDED PERIOD IT RE-STRENGTHENS IT BACK TO A HURRICANE. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...
 SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AGAIN...THE INDIVIDUAL
 MODELS AND MODEL CONSENSUS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING FERNANDA TO THE
 SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO
 MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 19.2N 127.1W    70 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W    60 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W    55 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W    40 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W    35 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FERNANDA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman