011 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130256
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT LITTLE
 CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE
 WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...FERNANDA'S
 INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT...AS THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DECREASING BELOW HURRICANE
 STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FERNANDA IS
 EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES SLOWLY
 INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE
 WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
 RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN GREG AND FERNANDA.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 18.9N 125.6W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W    70 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W    60 KT
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W    45 KT
  72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$