697 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 122041
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A 75 KT HURRICANE.  A
 NICE EYE IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DMSP SSMI DATA SHOW A
 MORE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM OVERALL.  TAFB AND SAB REPORT DVORAK
 ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS ALSO 4.5 SO
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER... FINAL T-NUMBERS
 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SO FERNANDA HAS LIKELY
 REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
 
 THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH
 SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN FERNANDA TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24
 HOURS... AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT FURTHER WEAKENS TO
 A DEPRESSION AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
 MOVE OVER 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
 SYSTEM.  
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/8. AGAIN... THE FORECAST
 TRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE
 EXTENDED PERIODS... THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS AND
 GFDL TRACKS.  IN COMPARISON... THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
 CONSENSUS AND NOGAPS IS MORE NORTH.  THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS MINOR
 AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 FORECASTER SISKO
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 18.7N 124.8W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W    65 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W    55 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$