122 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 112029
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
  
 SO MUCH FOR THE WEAKENING OF FERNANDA WHICH IS DISPLAYING A BANDED
 EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1508Z SSMI
 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE THOUGH RECENT
 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE EYE MAY BE SHRINKING AND CONSOLIDATING
 IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BETWEEN
 AODT'S OF 4.4 AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
 SCALE. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT FROM THE STANDARD
 DVORAK CURVE BASED ON CONSECUTIVE CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES.
 HOWEVER...FERNANDA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTERM AND SHOULD FINALLY
 BEGIN A SLOW DECAYING TREND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
 MOVE WITHIN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND PARALLELLS THE 25C ISOTHERM. WIND
 SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
 SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.
 FERNANDA IS BECOMING MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH
 NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
 CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 AFTERWARD...FERNANDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED
 WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY
 WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND KEEPING A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING
 NORTHWEST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE
 NOGAPS SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
 
 WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT
 QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII FOLLOW WIND RADII CLIPER.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.3N 121.8W    70 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W    65 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W    55 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$