552 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 111435
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
  
 T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GETTING
 MORE RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO
 BE SOLIDLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
 AT 65 KT IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB. THE CYCLONE
 HAS LIKELY PEAKED WITH COOLING SSTS IN ITS PATH AND THE STABLE
 MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 3
 DAYS AND THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO NEARLY PARALLEL THE 25C ISOTHERM.
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS BEYOND 2 DAYS
 WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR CYCLONES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 25C.   
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. FERNANDA HAS PASSED THE
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME MORE
 CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT
 DAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
 MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON THEN TO THE WEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE
 STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD ALSO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO
 THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE NOGAPS IS
 A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...KEEPING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
 NORTHWEST BECAUSE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WEAKENS THE HIGH
 MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
 BECAUSE OF THE UNREASONABLE HIGHER STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BY NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ACCELERATES THE
 DECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER
 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 16.9N 121.2W    65 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W    60 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W    55 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W    50 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$