Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 581 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 110241
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005
  
 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
 OVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
 WITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
 THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
 OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
 SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
 AT 60 KT.  SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST
 THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
 HOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE
 SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A
 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND
 COMMENCES.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO
 UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 AFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE
 THE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS
 DEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND
 CONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST.  
 
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W    60 KT
  12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W    70 KT
  36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W    60 KT
  72HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W    50 KT
  96HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FERNANDA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman