451 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 100252
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005
 
 VISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD
 PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
 HOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE
 BANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
 WELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT
 FROM AFWA.  IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
 HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA
 IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY
 3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO
 WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS
 SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW
 IS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST
 PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW
 DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL
 MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
 THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
 INFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
 FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
 ECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC
 FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO
 CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.     
  
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W    50 KT
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W    70 KT
  72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W    60 KT
  96HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    35 KT
  
  
 $$