014 
 WTNT41 KNHC 260233
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST
 QUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4
 IN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT
 AND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE
 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF
 FERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
 CONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
 COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY
 BE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT
 BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS
 COLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY
 ON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
 FERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
 NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO
 RATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
 MOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
 THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC.
 
 HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
 VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
 ASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND.  THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT
 FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0300Z 19.3N  96.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 19.7N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  27/0000Z 20.3N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
  36H  27/1200Z 21.0N  99.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
  48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART