283 
 WTNT41 KNHC 252331
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
 SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
 KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
 1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
 STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
 FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
 MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
 IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
 THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
 THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
 UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
 SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
 TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
 WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
 BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
 ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.
  
 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
 INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2300Z 19.2N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 19.5N  96.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  24H  26/1800Z 20.1N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  27/0600Z 20.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART