324 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030256
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
  
 SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
 23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
 THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
 00Z.  GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
 TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT. 
 THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
 OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
 LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
 STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
 INTENSIFICATION.  THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
 TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
 THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
 ANTICYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
 SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
 FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
 RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
 EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
 WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
 MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
 AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
 GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW.  THE MAJOR
 MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
 AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.9N  73.9W   145 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  76.6W   150 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  79.8W   145 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.6N  82.8W   145 KT
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N  85.2W   145 KT
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   135 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.5W    90 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN