528 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020901
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
  
 FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93
 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION
 AT ABOUT 0638Z.  IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED
 SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER
 LAYER OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
 IS SET TO 85 KT.  WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
 CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR
 IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM
 OVERPASS AT 0619Z.
 
 FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH
 STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
 ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD
 WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 ON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
 EVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
 AND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72
 HOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
 THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT
 FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER
 UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
 GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.
 
 ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE
 OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST
 OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
 MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES
 BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY
 UNCERTAIN.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 12.8N  68.7W    85 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.2N  71.3W    95 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.9N  75.0W   105 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.6N  78.6W   115 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N  81.9W   125 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  87.0W   120 KT
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB