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 055 
 WTNT41 KNHC 020304
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
  
 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
 LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
 FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
 CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE.  BASED ON THIS...
 FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
 CONSERVATIVE.
 
 FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
 IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
 HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
 SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. 
 THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER
 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
 THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS. 
 THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
 TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
 A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
 CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
 THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
 THE SOUTH OF THAT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
 EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE.  IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
 72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.
  
 FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
 REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
 APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
 THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS.  THE
 RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
 FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
 NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR. 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
 COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
 BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...PRESENT
 INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
 WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 12.7N  66.9W    65 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.2N  69.6W    75 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.2W    85 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N  76.6W    90 KT
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N  79.7W   100 KT
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.5W   110 KT
  96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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