057 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010900
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
  
 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
 OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
 VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SUBJECTIVE AND
 OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
 IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
 STORM FELIX.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
 REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
 PASSED OVER GRENADA.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
 SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
 WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
 THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
 FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
 TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
 FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
 FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
 FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
 MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
 280/16.  MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
 ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
 CARIBBEAN.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
 DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
 THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
 THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
 WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
 OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS
 VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
 SOUTH.  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0900Z 12.4N  62.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     01/1800Z 12.8N  64.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.4N  67.7W    50 KT
  36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.1N  71.2W    60 KT
  48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.6N  74.6W    70 KT
  72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  81.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W    90 KT
 120HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    50 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB