764 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
 300 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015
 
 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure several
 hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
 peninsula has become better organized tonight, with a curved
 band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation.
 Based on the increased convective organization, the system is now
 classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to
 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.
 
 There is not much of an opportunity for the depression to
 strengthen, with moderate northerly shear expected to persist until
 the system crosses the 26C isotherm in about a day. As a result,
 the intensity guidance shows little strengthening and the NHC
 forecast follows this trend. However, it is possible that the
 cyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status even though that
 isn't explicitly forecast here. The cyclone should weaken to a
 remnant low by 48 hours due to cold waters and a dry, stable
 airmass. The low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 330/08. The depression should
 move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the
 subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours and then turn westward under
 the influence of the low-level ridge as it becomes a shallow system.
 The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
 models through dissipation.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 20.2N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 21.3N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 22.1N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan