408 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 060843
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
  
 FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  THE EYE HAS BEEN
 WARMING AND HAS BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
 BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE ALSO
 BEEN WARMING.  FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO...
 AND THIS ADVISORY MAINTAINS 120-KT AS THE INTENSITY.  FELICIA MAY
 HAVE PEAKED NEAR 125 KT AROUND 0200-0300 UTC WHEN A WHITE RING
 COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYE ON THE DVORAK BD ENHANCEMENT CURVE.
  
 THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE HURRICANE
 COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 AS THE RIDGE RETREATS FARTHER EAST OVER MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
 AGREE THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII WILL
 SHIFT EASTWARD AND CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND
 THEN WEST BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A
 LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTIONS.
 FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
 IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
  
 FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
 FELICIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
 SHOULD BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C AND HEADING
 TOWARD INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN
 THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.  ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
 WEAKER VORTEX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND
 THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.  ONLY THE
 HWRF AND GFDL STILL HAVE THE CYCLONE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON
 DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BY NOT INDICATING
 DISSIPATION BUT WEAKENING FELICIA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE
 END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.5N 131.2W   120 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 132.3W   115 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.4N 133.9W   105 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N 135.8W    90 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.4N 138.1W    75 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 143.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 148.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 154.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG