Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 555 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 042033
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE
 AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
 1800 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT BUT SINCE THAT TIME... THE
 EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT...MAKING FELICIA THE THIRD HURRICANE
 OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
 
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE TODAY...AND
 WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
 STRENGTHENING...THE QUESTION IS: HOW STRONG WILL IT GET? THE
 PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE 85 AND 37 GHZ CHANNELS OF A 1547 UTC
 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS MORE STRENGTHENING...EVEN A
 CONTINUATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO FORECASTS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT
 INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...ABOUT 8 TIMES THE SAMPLE
 MEAN. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...THE
 OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN ON SHIPS AND THE MICROWAVE DATA TO
 FORECAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEVEL
 OFF THE WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATERS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR MAY
 ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.
  
 FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/12. A RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DUE TO A LARGE
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO MOVE
 MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE
 IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENRIQUE TO CAUSE FURTHER RIDGE WEAKENING...
 WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF
 FELICIA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
 WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
 TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NONE. FOR
 NOW...I'M GOING TO LEAN ON THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS MORE SEPARATION
 BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST SOUTH
 OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 12.4N 126.6W    70 KT
  12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N 128.3W    85 KT
  24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.9N 130.1W    95 KT
  36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.7N 131.7W   100 KT
  48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 133.3W   100 KT
  72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W    90 KT
  96HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 142.5W    80 KT
 120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FELICIA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman