904 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 041647
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND
 INTENSITY OF FELICIA.  A 1327 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS RECEIVED JUST
 AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
 EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE.  IN ADDITION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
 WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF AN EYE.  SPECIAL
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS
 NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60
 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND
 OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  
  
 THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS CENTERED FARTHER
 SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1700Z 12.3N 125.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W    70 KT
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W    75 KT
  36HR VT     06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W    75 KT
  96HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH