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 358 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 040832
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT
 LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
 STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
 OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
 DISRUPTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE BY THE OUTFLOW OF ENRIQUE...LOCATED
 NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND
 ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A
 TROPICAL STORM TODAY. DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH ENRIQUE....WHICH
 COULD BE A INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FACTOR...BOTH SSTS AND SHEAR ARE
 CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
 SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
 AND WEAKENING TRENDS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11
 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY
 FLOW...BUT BOTH THE EFFECT OF ENRIQUE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
 DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION COULD SLOW DOWN A
 LITTLE DURING THAT PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...ALL BETS ARE THAT THE
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REBUILD AS ENRIQUE
 WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH AN
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
 GLOBAL MODELS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-PACKED TRACK
 GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 12.3N 123.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    55 KT
  96HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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