211 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 040240
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009
  
 CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL
 SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AND 1.5...
 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
 ...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE
 DVORAK ESTIMATES. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
 ONLY ABOUT 500-600 NM WEST OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...HOWEVER THE
 CYCLONES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING EACH OTHER...AND THIS
 FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ANY INTERACTION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW
 AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
 PROVIDE A BIT OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK OVER THE FIRST
 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
 DEPRESSION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
 TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. 
 
 THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SSTS OF 28-29C AND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS 
 FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL
 ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY
 SHOWING WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND
 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WHILE THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE INTENSITY
 PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
 REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 11.9N 122.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN