567
WTPA42 PHFO 110859
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009
FELICIA CONSISTS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A TIMELY QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE. THE AREA OF THE 35 KT WINDS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS OVERPASS...INDICATING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND. A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO AT 0530 UTC
CALLED FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT WINDS. HAVE KEPT FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE...BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.
CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST...270 DECREES...AT 9 KT. THE
COURSE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE...TAKING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE ENVELOPE SPREADS BEYOND 36
HOURS...BUT MOST AIDES AGREE IN TURNING THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO
THE RIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TURN
WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
THE DOWNWARD TRENDING INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT
FELICIA IS IN AN UNFRIENDLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST UW-CIMMS
VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE WAS ABOUT 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST...WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY INTENSIFICATION...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
SSTS AHEAD OF FELICIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
FELICIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FELICIA MAY
UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS
DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 20.9N 153.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.1N 156.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 21.3N 158.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0600Z 21.5N 160.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 22.2N 163.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z 23.6N 167.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z 25.4N 170.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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