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 567 
 WTPA42 PHFO 110859
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
 1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009
 
 FELICIA CONSISTS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
 LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A TIMELY QUIKSCAT
 OVERPASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
 CYCLONE. THE AREA OF THE 35 KT WINDS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY IN
 COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS OVERPASS...INDICATING A CONTINUED
 WEAKENING TREND. A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO AT 0530 UTC 
 CALLED FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT WINDS. HAVE KEPT FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
 STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE...BASED ON THE
 QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
 CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST...270 DECREES...AT 9 KT. THE
 COURSE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
 FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST PACKAGE...TAKING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
 STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE ENVELOPE SPREADS BEYOND 36
 HOURS...BUT MOST AIDES AGREE IN TURNING THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO
 THE RIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TURN
 WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS.
  
 THE DOWNWARD TRENDING INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT
 FELICIA IS IN AN UNFRIENDLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL REMAIN
 SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LATEST UW-CIMMS
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE WAS ABOUT 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST...WHICH IS
 ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY INTENSIFICATION...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
 SSTS AHEAD OF FELICIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
 FELICIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT
 LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FELICIA MAY
 UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS
 DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 20.9N 153.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.1N 156.4W    30 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.3N 158.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N 160.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 22.2N 163.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 23.6N 167.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 25.4N 170.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CRAIG
  
 
 
 
 
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