161 
 WTPA42 PHFO 110244
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
 500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009
 
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
 WELL REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE
 NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION THAT
 REMAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 KT
 ACCORDING TO THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE. SINCE NO FURTHER AIR
 FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO FELICIA ARE SCHEDULED...WE WILL
 WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THAT SHOULD OCCUR AT ABOUT
 0440 UTC TONIGHT...TO CONFIRM IF FELICIA IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS
 OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CURRENT MOTION OF 270 DEGREES
 AT 9 KT. SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM...ITS MOTION
 WILL PRIMARILY BE CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
 OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
 CONTINUES TO BRING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. THE
 CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48
 HOURS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. 
 THE MODELS FORECAST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO BEND
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER PASSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
  
 FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
 DIFLUENCE AND INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.
 THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR... WHICH WILL LIKELY
 CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS
 AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
 FELICIA WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO 
 WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FELICIA
 MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
 CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0300Z 20.9N 152.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.9N 153.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     12/1200Z 21.2N 157.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     13/0000Z 21.4N 159.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     14/0000Z 21.9N 163.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     15/0000Z 23.2N 166.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     16/0000Z 24.9N 169.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB