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 444 
 WTPA42 PHFO 082102
 TCDCP2
 
 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082009
 1100 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2009
 
 THE EYE HAS BEEN LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE
 ABOUT 1330 UTC...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
 MORE AMORPHOUS...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPERIENCING NO
 SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS YET.  THE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
 MISSION INTO FELICIA THIS MORNING YIELDED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
 PRESSURE OF 981 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB OF 86
 KT...WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 77
 KT...AND A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED RETRIEVAL OF 66 KT.  THE
 ADVISORY INTENSITY IS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT...WHICH IS
 CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS.  THE CURRENT AIR
 FORCE MISSION WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
 SECOND MISSION HEADING OUT LATER THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A
 THIRD AND FINAL NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION WILL TAKE
 PLACE TONIGHT.  WE GREATLY APPRECIATE THE WORK OF THE AIR FORCE AND
 NOAA AIRCRAFT CREWS IN PROVIDING THESE IMPORTANT DATA.
  
 THE LATEST SUITE OF TRACK MODEL RUNS...WHICH HAD THE BENEFIT OF DATA
 FROM THE G-IV MISSION THAT CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE HURRICANE LAST
 NIGHT...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FELICIA HEADING
 WESTWARD TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY PAST HAWAII DURING THE FIVE-DAY
 FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
 BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS ON THE EXACT LATITUDE AT WHICH FELICIA
 WILL MOVE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE
 CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO
 THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS LITTLE CHANGE.
 
 FELICIA IS OVER THE COLDEST WATERS IT HAS YET EXPERIENCED...BUT FROM
 THIS POINT FORWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE UNDERLYING OCEAN
 GETS ONLY GRADUALLY WARMER...SO A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN
 LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST AN
 INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NORTH OF
 ABOUT 20N...WHICH COULD INDUCE EVEN FASTER WEAKENING ESPECIALLY IF
 FELICIA MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER FELICIA WILL
 REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM...A DEPRESSION...OR
 HAVE DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/2100Z 19.8N 142.1W    75 KT
  12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.1N 144.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.1N 146.8W    60 KT
  36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 149.6W    50 KT
  48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.0N 152.4W    40 KT
  72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 158.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 163.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     13/1800Z 20.5N 169.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
 
 
 
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