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 166 
 WTNT42 KNHC 121435
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
 and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
 better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
 mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
 hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
 an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
 anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
 hurricane status.  A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
 cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
 about 24 hours.
 
 Fay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of
 the initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt.
 Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while
 embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is
 in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the
 previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1500Z 34.0N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 35.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 36.0N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  14/0000Z 36.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  14/1200Z 34.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  15/1200Z...absorbed by a front
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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