127 
 WTNT42 KNHC 120855
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 The area of cold cloud tops associated with Fay has expanded
 overnight, but radar imagery from Bermuda indicate that the
 overall convective structure of the cyclone has not changed much.
 Surface observations and the radar data show that the center of Fay
 has passed over the island within the past hour.  Subsequently, a
 minimum pressure of 986 mb was reported at Bermuda airport observing
 station.  The initial wind speed remains 60 kt and is based on the
 earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the 06z Dvorak classifications
 from SAB and TAFB. Little change in strength is expected during the
 next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, Fay is expected to merge with
 a frontal zone and become extratropical. The global models now keep
 the post-tropical cyclone a distinct feature along the frontal zone
 a little longer, so the new NHC forecast delays dissipation until
 around 48 hours.
 
 Fay has not turned quite as sharp as predicted.  The initial motion
 estimate is north-northeastward or 015/17 kt.  Fay should turn
 northeastward later this morning, and then accelerate
 north-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the
 Atlantic tonight through Monday.  The updated NHC track is a little
 north of the previous track and near the middle of the tightly
 clustered guidance models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 32.4N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 34.2N  61.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 35.8N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  13/1800Z 36.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown