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 442 
 WTNT42 KNHC 120233
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014
 
 Fay's cloud pattern is that of a sheared cyclone, with deep
 convection bursting west of the center and little in the way of
 banding features. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
 investigating the cyclone this evening found peak flight-level winds
 of 79 kt at 5,000 ft, but these were in an area of limited deep
 convection southeast of the center. Several SFMR winds of around 55
 kt in the convection support maintaining the initial intensity at 60
 kt for this advisory. The central pressure fell to 988 mb just
 before 0000 UTC, but ticked up to 989 mb on the final aircraft fix.
 
 Aircraft fixes indicate that Fay has turned to the east of due
 north, with an initial motion of 010/15. The cyclone should
 continue to accelerate northeastward and then east-northeastward
 into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 hours. The new
 NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus and the
 previous official forecast, taking the center of Fay just east of
 Bermuda overnight tonight. This track will place the island in a
 region with some of the strongest winds and deepest convection
 associated with the storm.
 
 Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24
 hours as Fay will continue to be embedded within a high shear
 environment. By 36 hours, Fay should be absorbed into a frontal
 system.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0300Z 30.9N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  12/1200Z 32.7N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  13/0000Z 34.6N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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