478 
 WTNT42 KNHC 111454
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014
 
 Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around
 0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived after
 the previous advisory was released.  An Air Force Reserve
 reconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, when
 it made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrants
 indicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40
 n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surface
 wind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasing
 the intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests a
 central pressure of about 991 mb.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the center
 redeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deep
 convection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remains
 unchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue to
 move northward and then northeastward around the western periphery
 of a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then
 recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in
 forward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closely
 follows the multi-model consensus TVCN.
 
 The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear is
 forecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change in
 intensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear is
 forecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, which
 should induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by a
 strong cold front in about 48 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 27.9N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 30.1N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 33.0N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 35.3N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart