597 
 WTNT42 KNHC 110231
 TCDAT2
 
 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection
 displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of
 southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the
 center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier
 aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than
 it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a
 tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is
 expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in
 the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the
 cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast
 is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move
 around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no
 change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn
 northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the
 mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to
 the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial
 position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous
 forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest
 dynamical model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 25.9N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 27.7N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 30.8N  64.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 33.9N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 36.6N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan