156 
 WTNT42 KNHC 102058
 TCDAT2
 
 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014
 
 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
 aircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little
 better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has
 gradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation
 center, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the
 aircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a
 subtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this
 system has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane
 Hunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour
 or so.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move
 steadily northwestward and then northward around the western
 periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N
 latitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected
 to recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes
 embedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching
 shortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast.
 The latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west,
 especially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered
 and in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario,
 including absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official
 track has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies
 just to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track
 model TVCN.
 
 The large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly
 vertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of
 intensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C
 sea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of
 inner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a
 tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this
 transition would have virtually no effect on the size of the
 tropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely
 follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 24.7N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 28.5N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 31.7N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 33.7N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart